I played a couple of pots in cash games at the Vic recently which got me thinking about implied odds. Co-incidentally in both coups I held KJ suited – usually the sort of hand that just gets you into trouble.
In the first instance I called a £35 bet on the flop with a gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. My opponent and I had both had over £600 in front of us, thus giving me more than adequate odds to hit my hand. I also knew there was a good chance he would pay me off which of course is crucial when one is talking about implied odds.
The turn card was a low club which now gave me a flush draw to go with my middle-pin draw. I called another bet and was delighted to see a third club fall on the river. My foe checked and I made a chunky bet which he duly paid off. Sweet.
The second example did not go so well. Once again I had the KJ suited and this time four of us saw a flop which came down 7 T Q. I checked, the next player bet about £25, the next two players folded and the action was back on me. Without thinking I casually made the call. After all, I’ve got an up-and-down straight draw so obviously I should call, right? Plus an over-card to the flop which might be good too (no back-door flush draw this time by the way).
But if I had stopped to think about it I would have realised that I was up against a much better player than in the first hand. Was I going to get paid off if a 9 or an ace comes giving me the straight? The answer was a resounding “No!”
My opponent here was an experienced no limit holdem player who would easily have been able to read my hand and fold pretty much anything he held. Heads-up and out of position is not exactly the best way to play an obvious draw.
The first hand was a good example of a longshot drawing hand which gave me very nice implied odds. The second hand is a drawing hand that hits more often, but I feel that I wasn’t even getting close to the right price.
Pre-Flop
Note that both examples I have given were post-flop decisions. What about implied odds before the flop? I believe a lot of players fall into the trap of calling raises light and out of position before the flop, all in the name of implied odds.
“I know this donkey has got aces or kings, I’m gonna call with this 83 offsuit. If I hit I’m gonna get the lot and if I miss I can outplay him anyway”.
It’s this sort of thinking that tends to be the road to ruin for the latest hotshot LAG sensation. Don’t get me wrong – when you’re a very good player, both in your reads and ability to manipulate your opponents, you can certainly open up and play a lot more hands. But finding excuses to play trash is a sure-fire way to end up in the poorhouse.
The trouble with pre-flop implied odds situations is that there are so many factors to take into account. Will the pot be multi-way action or heads-up? What’s your position? If you call a pre-flop raise can your hand stand a re-raise from another player still yet to act? Will you actually get paid off if you do hit your hand?
The last question is probably the most important. Getting paid off in Holdem can be pretty hard sometimes. Not only do you need to hit your flop, but so does your opponent. And then the texture of the flop has to be one where he is willing to commit himself with second best hand. This is why it is so important to choose a game with weak players.
Hitting a Set
A common scenario is calling a raise with a small pair in order to hit a set. We all know it’s 8-1 to hit trips on the flop so is that the price you want your opponent to be laying you when you call his raise with, say, pocket 5s?
Let’s say the blinds are $5-10 and the UTG player makes it $50 to play. You are in the BB so it’s $40 to you. According to the maths you need your foe to have $320 in front of him, but in reality you should be looking for a bigger price. One pro I spoke to about these sorts of situations told me he tended to look for about 25-1!
The reasons you need the bigger price than the true odds are to make up for the times you miss and the times you hit your card, but lose. It’s pretty hard to fold a set so they tend to be expensive when we lose with them.
Suited Connectors
What about other sorts of hands such as suited connectors or gappers? At least when you hit a set with a pocket pair you know you have a pretty strong hand; when you make two-pair with the connectors it’s easier to lose (still a strong hand of course, but slightly more vulnerable and, similar to trips, hard to get away from) so once again you need a big price. Deep stacks between you and your foe are required as well as the strong chance of getting paid.
Of course, I have just been referring to heads-up action; the sorts of hands I have been referring to prefer multi-way action. But you didn’t need me to tell you that did you?
As you can see, there’s more to implied odds than just simply the maths. Also, the difference between a pre-flop decision and a post flop decision is quite distinct with the latter usually being more straightforward. At that point you have so much more info about the hand so your decision should be that much clearer. If you find yourself getting out of line too much, either before or after the flop, and justify it by thinking you had the implied odds you might need to re-think your game.
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