When playing deep stack No Limit (or Pot Limit) Holdem there is a situation that crops up time and time again. It is what top cash player “JQ” refers to as the paradox of Holdem. By this he means that often you’ll be in a situation where whether you’re representing a hand or actually have the hand they (your opponents) can still get you off the hand!
“Who is this “JQ” and wtf is he talking about?” I hear you all thinking. Here’s an example – Let’s say you’ve been pretty active and have raised a bunch of hands and have been dominating the game winning a bunch of small pots without having to show down many hands.
You’re playing super-deep, let’s say 1000 BBs plus in your stack and there are at least a couple of other players with similar stacks. You’ve established a good loose aggressive image and now you get aces. Perfect. You raise and get a couple of callers. Let’s say you get a good flop for your hand, I’m not talking about hitting a set, but a safe, uncoordinated flop, maybe with two of a suit. They check to you and you make a standard continuation bet. Now player 1 who has the same amount of money as you check-raises you!
Let’s imagine for a moment that you in fact made the pre-flop raise not with a premium pair, but with garbage; let’s say 6 3 off. And let’s say this funky 6 3 off-suit has missed the flop. When both your opponents check to you on the flop your best play would be to represent a big pair and bet in the hopes they have both missed. You’re certainly not going to win the pot by checking it down and hoping that six-high is good. In other words, a standard continuation bet.
Now when your opponent check-raises you it’s a very easy fold (let’s forget about the situations where it’s an opponent whose tendencies you know well and whom you might make a re-raise bluff on etc). Your hand is six-high and even if your opponent is making a move on you it’s very likely he’s doing so with the best hand.
Let’s now go back to those pocket aces. There are a few hands you’re behind to and a few where you are a small favourite. Then again, there are quite a few hands that you are well ahead against too. Presumably you are going to face a big bet on the turn. It all boils down to this: Do you want to play a big pot with just one pair?
Let’s say your opponent makes a decent pot-sized bet on the turn and you call. This pot is getting big and there is still plenty of money left between the two of you. Now on the river he bets slightly over the pot. You are still playing aces. Let’s imagine you haven’t played much with this guy so there’s really not that much to go on, but you are fairly sure he’s not a complete maniac. Let’s say the board paired up somewhere along the way. Do you really want to call off half your stack with just one pair?
What am I getting at? I guess I’m trying to say that deep stack cash poker, especially Holdem, is an unbelievably skillful game. The psychology involved is paramount. If your opponent is a complete rock you have an easy fold for your aces. If he’s a loose and steaming from an earlier incident, then you should re-raise.
The problem lies in-between these two benchmarks when they are a decent player capable of making moves. By decent I mean a player who is good at reading situations and is on the right side of loose and knows how to play aggressively. And they have good awareness of your style of play. And you know that. And you know that they know that you know that. Getting complicated isn’t it?
Basically, you’re better off not having the hand in the first place. Then at least you don’t get in to trouble. Let’s take a look at the “conversation” that goes on during a hand.
When you raise before the flop you are telling the table you have a good hand, a premium pocket pair or and ace with a suited king or a queen, that type of hand. Yes, you also raise with suited connectors and smaller pairs sometimes too, but essentially the “language” of poker is saying, “I have a premium hand here”.
This dialogue is continued on the flop when you make the continuation bet. “Yes, I have a big pair and it’s the best hand”. Now when your opponent wants to check raise you they are saying, “I’ve out-flopped you”.
This is why poker is so subjective and player-dependent. Ultimately you must observe your opponents and get a line on their play. When that woman check-raises is it always with a big hand? Is that guy really capable of three-barrelling with air on every street?
It all goes back to the paradox, whether you have the hand or not, they can make you fold.
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