Jerry Yang v Philip Hilm

At the start of the 2007 World Series of Poker Main Event final table one of the fancied players to take the title was Philip Hilm. A third place finish at the Copenhagen EPT event resulted in Hilm being asked to be Captain of the Polish team (he's half Polish, half Danish and Lives in the UK) for the PokerStars World Cup of Poker which they then went on to win.

As hand #15 started Hilm was in the small blind with 19,240,000 chips. The blinds at this point were 120,000/240,000 with a running ante of 30,000. It’s folded around to Jerry Yang with 25,010,000 chips in the hi-jack who raises to 1 million with Ad-Kc. The cutoff and the button fold and Hilm thought for about a minute before calling with 8d-5d from the small blind. The big blind folds and its heads up.

Odds before the Flop:

Yang: 61.39%
Hilm: 38.10%

The flop came down Kd-Jd-5c and Hilm, first to act, checked. Yang bet 2 million and Hilm called.

Odds after the Flop:

Yang: 55.76%
Hilm: 44.24%

The turn card was the 2h and Hilm once again checked. Yang now fired 4 million into the pot. Hilm now raised all-in to 16,360,000 (4 million for the call plus 12.36 million for the raise). After about 30 seconds Yang called.

Odds after the Turn:

Yang: 70.45%
Hilm: 29.55%

The river card was the 6c and Hilm, having failed to hit any of his thirteen outs (eight diamonds, three 8s or two 5s) was eliminated in 9th place. Jerry Yang went on to win the 2007 World Series of Poker Main Event.

The Verdict:

Hilm has hit the flop with a pair and a flush draw. Many players would check-raise all in with this type of hand, but perhaps Hilm sensed that Yang was not the type of player to back down, thus losing himself precious fold equity which is an important part of a semi-bluff. Perhaps Hilm was worried that Yang was betting a hand like Ad-Qd or Qd-Td in which case Hilm would’ve been an even bigger dog in the hand (with Qd-Td Yang would be around a 65% favourite).

However having said all that, when you play a hand like 8d-5d, hitting a pair and a flush draw is one of the better flops you can hope to hit and maybe Hilm should’ve just tried to get all the money in. He knew it was likely that Yang would call, but at least Hilm would’ve had 14 outs twice (we know it’s actually 13 outs, but we’re looking at the scenario from Hilm’s POV) which is definitely a better time to get your money in than when he did.

As to the check-raise all-in move on the turn, what the hell was Philip Hilm thinking? As has already been noted Jerry Yang had already shown a penchant for aggressive play and certainly did not look like he was playing scared. In this hand he had shown great strength with a pre-flop raise, a bet on the flop and now a bet on the turn. Of course there’s a possibility that Yang is betting air, but that is a small percentage of the time (all of you faithful Dan Harrington readers out there may recall that Harrington recommends that you factor in a 10% chance of your foe bluffing, which in this case seems like a big number).

Yang had in fact won six out of the previous 14 hands, many of them with raises and re-raises before and after the flop and maybe Hilm decided that Yang was getting out of line. Perhaps it was hand #14 which was still on Hilm’s mind. In this he had defended his big blind with a call to Yang’s pre-flop raise. The action on the flop was check-bet-call. On the turn Hilm checked once again and now Yang went all-in and Hilm conceded the pot.

Even without that knowledge of the hands prior to this one, to the casual onlooker it looks like Jerry Yang is not interested in folding during any part of this hand. Hilm’s raise is only 12,360,000 more which is just not enough to get a player like Yang off a hand like A-K. It seemed like Hilm knew this on the flop, so why he changed his mind is anybody’s guess. In fact, I would even say that Yang’s bets look designed to get action. Hilm has no fold equity whatsoever on the turn so his semi-bluff turns into a big gamble. As you can see above with one card to come Hilm is basically a 30% dog which is not a spot you want to be in on the final table of the Big One.