The Crucial Hand Of The WSOP Main Event 2006

There are three players left - Jamie Gold, Paul Wasicka and Michael Binger. Jamie Gold has led the tournament by a considerable margin for more than four days and of the 90 million chips in play he has just over 60 million. The other two players have roughly 15 million each. The blinds are 200k/400k with 50k antes. The payouts which are important are:

1 $12 million
2 $6.1 million
3 $4.1 million


In a raised pot of around $6 million all three players saw a flop of 10c-6s-5s.

Wasicka, first to act held 7s-8s for a straight flush draw and checked. Binger, next to act, bet $3.5 million holding A-10.

Gold, holding 3-4 off-suit then raised all-in leaving Wasicka with a decision of life changing proportions.

Forget how the hand was played pre-flop and Wasicka’s dubious decision to check on the flop; the dilemma now is whether to commit the rest of your chips and make the call or fold.

To help you with your decision the chances of winning this pot at this stage are:

Wasicka 54%
Binger 29%
Gold 17%.

What might motivate your decision is that there is a $2 million jump from 3rd place to 2nd place.

The Verdicts


Poker Verdict’s Warren Wooldridge says:

"I know a lot of people will be screaming that it’s a cast iron call. How many of them have ever had $2 million in their grasp? Put it this way - it’s a very understandable fold. However, I would call for three very important reasons. For me, personally, $4.1 million tax free is enough. I don’t need the extra $2 mil that badly. Next, the difference between actually winning the tournament and coming in 2nd or 3rd is incalculable. I want to be known as World Champion for ever and that is far more likely to happen if I win this pot than if I fold. Finally, if I fold and Binger wins the pot I am an even hotter favourite to come in third.

As an extra inducement to call I know from previous experience that if I fold and the outcome is that I WOULD have won the pot – it will crack me up for life. It’s not the sort of thing you can forget."

Neil Channing, professional gambler and consultant to Poker Verdict, says:

"You're right to say that the decision to check the flop is dubious. Obviously Wasicka intended to check-raise the aggressive Gold who he expected to bet. I would probably have bet, but only about 1.5 million. The call would still have been a tough decision as I would be nowhere near pot-committed.

Given that Wasicka checked, Binger raised and Jamie moved in here's what I think:

I'm disregarding Michael Binger. It would be quite natural for him to make a bet in this spot with any pair, an up and down straight draw or any flush draw in this spot, but without two pair or more it would be very hard for him to call for all his chips after Jamie and I have both gone all-in. I don't think he has a big hand as the normal reaction to that would be to check and let the aggressive chip leader make a continuation bet. He is nowhere near pot committed so I think if I call he is definitely folding.

My decision comes down to what odds I think I am to beat Jamie Gold and whether the payout structure makes it a good gamble. It looks as though I have 15 outs twice to hit a straight or flush which means I'm a favourite to improve and so I should call. However, it is possible that he has a bigger flush draw or that Binger is holding some of my outs. If Jamie does have a flush draw it does make it unlikely that he has a pair so now my seven or eight could be good if I hit. Tricky one but the maths says I should call.

As for the payout structure I say call. As in all tournaments there is a clear reward offered to those who play to win. I can sit back and try to lock up second but the structure means it is clearly better to play to win. Obviously $4 million is not as much as it used to be and I see that Paul Wasicka is now playing all the $10k tournaments they can throw at him. By the time he's paid any shareholders, bought a nice house and car and taken care of Uncle Sam he may need another result by the end of 2008 if he's to continue in this career.

I think having come this far, and survived the showdowns and good fortune you need to do so, you must just hold your breath and push the chips in. Warren is right: not calling could crack you up for life. Carpe Diem."

Vicky Coren, journalist, broadcaster and London EPT Champion, says:

"I would definitely pass. If I exit the pot, Michael Binger is bound to recognize Gold's draw and call. On Gold's form, the straight is absolutely guaranteed to come. So that's Binger out, and me a massive underdog against the combination of Gold's huge chip stack and unearthly luck. With this brilliant pass, I am certain to collect $6.1 million and a quiet life. No chatshow circuit. No inescapable world fame. No irritating lawsuit. No gold diggers, no long-lost relatives, no unflattering photographs stamped onto souvenir chips and sold in the Harrahs gift shop until the end of time. What a fold!

But if I have any interest in winning the tournament, obviously, having sat there for 10 goddamn days, I call."

Jon Shoreman from PokerInEurope.com says:

"The percentages quoted are irrelevant, as the most likely thing to happen if we call with our 7s-8s is we will be heads-up against Gold. If that were to happen we would be a huge 78% favourite. Of course, if we knew this we would call instantly.

What type of hand could we be up against here? The two hands I do not want to see are trips or a flush draw with overcards. Against 10d-10s we have a 40% chance of winning, but against 10s-9s we only have a 25% chance. Against two pair, we are either a slight favourite (6d-5d we win 53%), or a small dog (10d-6d we win 49%). If our opponent has a hand like Kc-10c we win 56%, and against an overpair such as Jc-Jd we win 56%. What do all of these figures mean? Basically, I am happy moving all-in with this hand but I am reluctant to call all-in. By calling, I think it is more than likely that I will either be a dog, or at best a small favourite. As it happens we would be a huge favourite, but I think that will happen less than 5% of the time.

I much prefer folding this hand than calling all-in. Better to be the
aggressor in a different spot rather than a caller here. Up to this point I have made the assumption that Binger will fold if we call. But what if he is sitting lurking with a big hand himself? After all,
he did bet the flop. If we fold our hand here there is a chance that Binger will call, and also be knocked out, which moves us up to second place, and a heads-up shot at the title. All of this gives me more reason to fold this hand. My vote is therefore to fold."

Rory Liffey, professional poker player, says:

"The only reason I would call in this spot is if I was being completely out-played consistently by both my opponents and I felt that this was my only chance of getting chips. Apart from that it is a clear cut fold. The payouts are not a factor in this decision, it's a pretty standard structure anyway. The fact is that you would expect your best win percentage to be around 55% and there are some very likely scenarios where I would be a decent dog. It's quite possible that Gold has top pair plus the flush draw."

Roland De Wolfe, WPT and EPT Champion, says:

"There’s no way in a million years that you can fold that hand. The only reason you would is to move up the ladder – I’m not interested in coming second, I play to win."

Joe Beevers, professional player and Hendon Mobster, says:

"I can remember watching this hand live. When I saw it I was sure how I would have played the 7s-8s. I would check-raise (all-in) for sure. When Binger bet the $3.5m had Gold called or folded I would definitely have moved all-in. There would have been a lot of chips in the pot to pick up and it would be hard for either of them to call unless they were strong. Even if I got a caller I would have had a good draw. Sadly that plan never came to happen as Gold moved all-in first.

Now Gold had been playing very aggressively. He could have a hand like A-10 but he could also, very likely, have a flush draw with two overs. If I called and Binger called as well I could be in all sorts of trouble. One could have a pair or better and the other could be on a draw. I could be drawing as slim as six cards and even that might not be good enough.

If I pass and the other two clash with Gold winning the pot I automatically pick up $2 million. I know that $4.1 is already guaranteed and a huge pay-day but $2m more is no small change. I also fancy that if I am heads-up with Gold I know how he plays and believe that I can get him to pay me off a few times. Only having one player to beat (especially Gold) rather than two is always a better proposition.

Laying down a straight flush draw when three-handed in poker’s biggest event is tough. Of course, I want to win more than anything. I do, however, believe that rather than calling all-in with a potential three-way all-in fest I am better off hoping to go heads-up with Gold for the title and pocketing the extra $2 million."

Sarah Bilney, top cash player, says:

"It's a definite call for me. Yes, you are risking your tournament life when there's a chance you could move up a spot by folding here, but then again when are you going to find a better spot to get your chips in, and maybe double up to win the thing? Gold could have just about anything here the way he was playing during the final stages of the event, and once you call, Binger has an easy fold to put you heads up holding what is likely the favourite hand to win. And, as Warren points out, you're already winning enough that the money difference (although significant) is less of a consideration than giving yourself the best chance to become a WSOP Main Event champion - a truly life-changing event."

If you would like to give your VERDICT on this hand please email us at jamesh@pokerverdict.com. The best ones will be added to the article