Matt Matros v Ricky Grijalva

There was a great showdown between Matt Matros and Ricky Grijalva at the World Poker Tour Championship Event 2004. See what The Judge thinks

Matros v Grijalva 1 July 2006

"If Matt had held something like 5-5 it seems highly unlikely that he would play back at Ricky on a flop like Q-J-9"

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2004 WPT Championship

The WPT Championship event is the finale of the World Poker Tour Season and it is hosted each April by the prestigious Bellagio Hotel on the Las Vegas Strip. It is the largest buy-in event in the world, costing a whopping $25,000 to enter compared to a standard $10,000 fee for most of the other major tour events (including the World Series main event).

The prohibitive cost of entry as well as the free ticket given to all of the season’s winners of the other WPT events ensures a high class field. It is the poker world's Gold Cup whereas the World Series main event, where luck and stamina are needed to overcome a huge field, is the Grand National.

Over 300 players entered the 2004 tournament and by the time that this hand came around, both Matt and Ricky were down to the last 30. They were both “in the money” meaning that they had already locked up $41,000 each in prize money, but both had large chip stacks and were gunning for the televised final table and the $2.5m first prize.

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The action started before the flop, with Ricky making a standard opening raise with A-J and Matt calling in position on the button with Js-10s. Matt had a further 1.1m in chips behind and Ricky had him out-chipped with about 1.4m in chips behind. With more chips and a dominating hand you had to like Ricky’s chance before the flop.

Odds Before the Flop:
Ricky Grijalva: 66%
Matt Matros: 33%

The flop came down Q-J-9 with one spade. This was a semi-favorable flop to Ricky so he led out for 150,000. Matt, however, also liked the flop as it had bought him a pair and a straight draw plus he had position on Ricky so he raised it up to 500,000 leaving him 600,000 behind.

Ricky went into the think-tank for a considerable period and then he called.

Odds After the Flop:
Ricky Grijalva: 55%
Matt Matros: 43%

The turn bought the 4s meaning that Matt now had a flush draw as well a straight draw. Ricky announced “All-in” and Matt quickly decided with so many chips in the middle and with such a huge draw as well as a made pair, he had to call for his remaining 600,000.

Odds After the Turn Card:
Ricky Grijalva: 59%
Matt Matros: 41%

The river brought misery for Ricky and joy for Matt as the 8s completed Matt’s flush, thus crushing Rick’s higher kicker and dominating pre-flop hand. The 2.4m chip pot catapulted Matt into the chip lead. He went on to finish third, taking home a tidy $706,903.

The Judge's Verdict

This was a key hand for both players and a very interesting hand to analyse. Ask 10 different players their verdict on this hand and you may get 10 different answers, but my take is this:

While Ricky’s A-J may have deserved better against its weaker J-10 cousin, I think he made a crucial error in his post flop play. While the flop was not too bad for an A-J, it was also potentially dangerous and so when Ricky led out for 150,000 he surely would have been happy to take the pot down there and then. I like his 150,000 bet as it was big enough to give him a chance to take it down and also to give him a strong feel of where he stood in the hand.

When Matt re-raised to 500,000 on such a dangerous flop, it signalled great strength. If the flop had been an unscary combination like 6-6-2 then perhaps Matt would re-raise as a bluff, but this was a dangerous flop. If Matt had held something like 5-5 or middle suited connectors like 6h-7h it seems highly unlikely that he would play back at Ricky on a flop like Q-J-9.

In reality, J-10 was one of the weakest hands that Matt might have been holding and thus Ricky was still the favourite, but Ricky could not have known this for sure, and he must have considered that there were a series of other hands that Matt could have been holding that would have left him (Ricky) as a serious ‘dog'. Matt’s betting pattern could have been consistent with him holding any of A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, 9-9, A-Q, K-Q, Q-J and Q-10, all of which would have had Ricky in serious trouble. Outside of a total bluff (which as I have explained seems unlikely on this type of flop), the only likely hands that Matt may have held where Ricky would have been the favourite were J-10, K-J and A-10. Even there, his edge would not be massive so I definitely think tha folding was the best option in this spot.

The only reason for deciding not to fold had to be a very confident read that he was in front in which case, I would argue, that Ricky’s second best option would be to commit to that read by acting quickly and decisively and moving all-in. As it happens, Matt claims he would have called an all-in re-re-raise, however Ricky may well have moved him off a weaker drawing hand like K-J or A-10.

While no limit holdem generally favours the boldest players, at top levels you have to be able to mix courage with caution and tournaments are often won as much by great folds as they are by strong raises and brave calls. After his initial post-flop raise, Ricky had only invested about 200,000 chips or 15% of his stack, and once he had been strongly re-raised, I don’t think he needed to go gambling the vast majority of the remaining 85% without having a clear big edge to justify this type of play.

27/02/08

Matros: ballsy post-flop play failed to deter Grijalva