Semi Bluffing
The importance of bluffing with marginal hands
By Philip Tuck
"These types of estimations are the true skill of a good poker player"Semi bluffing is an extremely important part of any skilled player’s repertoire. The term “semi bluff” simply refers to a bet where you are most likely behind as the hand stands, but have the possibility of improving to a strong hand. The basic principal is that you give yourself an extra chance to win the pot, both by taking down the pot with your semi bluff, but also winning the pot if your hand develops later on. Below I want to look at a hand where I made an interesting semi bluff, and think about the advantages and disadvantages of the play.
Hand.
This hand comes from a £1/£2 home cash game where all the players are relatively unskilled. They tend to play strong when weak, weak when strong, and call far too much pre flop. None of them have a decent grasp of pot odds. We are playing six handed and I am in the small blind. We all have stacks of around £100 (half buy in game to ‘encourage action’ the host claims). The under the gun player folds, but all others call. I complete in the small blind with 5s2s, and the big blind checks.
The flop comes: Js 4s 6h.
This gives me a low flush draw and possible running straight combinations. With five limpers behind me I’m not too keen on my hand (there could well be a higher flush draw behind) and I elect to check. The big blind, bets out the size of the pot (£10 - taking the overall pot size to £20). All the other players fold around to me.
First some background: I know this player extremely well, and he tends to check call with sets, two pairs and draws, and bet out with top pair with basically any kicker. He is also capable of making big lay downs if he deems you to be making a strong move, although will often check call standard bets. As a result I elect to call and see if I can hit my flush (which I’m now 99% sure will be good if I hit).
The turn is: 5c
This now gives me a pair to go with my flush draw, which should give me an extra five outs, making a total of fourteen. I check after a little pause, he bets pot again (£30 into £30 - taking the overall pot size to £60) and I check raise all in for my remaining £78. He thinks for a few minutes and folds jack ten face up. I muck. A few hands later I tell him I had a set of sixes to maintain a solid reputation and make him feel better.
Analysis.
During my little think on the river I decided that this was a great time to check, with the intention of semi bluffing all in if my opponent bet. There were a couple of reasons for this. Firstly, a check raise all in on the turn is a very strong move to a player like this - as he regularly plays a weak is strong style, he will often think that this is one of those ‘clever’ trapping moves that he himself makes - and this gives me a great chance to pick up the already large pot (which is a good result with a hand that can easily miss on the river). Secondly, the percentage of the time that he does call (which is probably about 10-20% in this specific case by my estimations) I still have a huge amount of equity - 38.64% against jack ten and 25% if, in the worse case, he has a set.
This is the key point in semi bluffing. If you believe the chances of your opponent calling are below the equity of your hand, semi bluffing is a great play to make. You will make a profit enough times from your opponent folding, that when you do get called it will pay for being behind. Semi bluffing also does wonders for your reputation at the table, making you appear a reckless player, when actually you are making quite astute moves - always good for when you flop sets or other big hands.
The main difficulty comes in estimating the likelihood of your opponent folding. These types of estimations are the true skill of a good poker player - and semi bluffing is, as a result, one of the greatest weapons to a skilled player. By sizing up your opponents adequately, you will quickly learn the best spots to exert pressure on them, and will profit accordingly.
29/04/08
