Beginners guide to pot odds

Find out when to hold'em and when to fold'em

By Philip Tuck

"over the long run you will make money - it is a mathematical certainty"
As a companion to our basic guide to hold’em percentages, we thought it would be good to do a follow up piece on pot odds, as the two concepts need to be successfully tied together in order to become a successful player.

Pot odds are simply the price you are being given on the pot at any given point. If an opponent bets $10 into a pot of $90, you are being given 10-to-1 pot odds (investing $10 to win the $100 in the pot) if you choose to call. If an opponent bets $100 into $100 then you are being given 2-to1 pot odds to call (investing $100 to win the $200 in the pot).

All of these odds can easily be turned into percentages as well, which makes it easier to compare with the percentage chance of making your hand. To turn odds into percentages you simply add the odds together and divide by one.

So in the case of a pot size bet we would add 2 and 1 together (the 2-to-1 odds) and divide by one. 3 divided by 1 is 0.3333r or 33%.

Now we can start to tie the pot odds into hand percentages. As we know from our hand percentages article, if we get to see both turn and river with a flush draw, we have around a 35% chance to hit the flush and make a powerful hand.

Imagine you flop a flush draw and your opponent bets the size of the pot on the flop and is all in. Is this a profitable call for you? To work it out is simple - we take the chance of hitting your hand (35% as we know we can see both turn and river through the opponent being all in) and compare it to the odds we are being offered, which in this case is 33%. As long as the chance of hitting your hand outweighs the pot odds you are being offered (in this case by about 2%), over the long run you will make money - it is a mathematical certainty.

It is worth noting that pot odds can never give you the complete picture in these spots. Does your opponent have a set? Have they got a higher flush draw? These are factors which all radically change the percentages involved and are up to your read on your opponent more than anything - these figures are normally just a guide to the correct action.

It is also worth remembering that in most poker games, particularly no limit varieties, pot odds are made much more complicated by implied odds - the odds of what you may be able to win later, if you want to learn more about implied odds click here. This is what makes no limit games particularly thrilling and absorbing - most of the play relies on psychology instead of maths. Pot odds are most useful when trying ot work out whether to call a player's all in move when playing no limit games. In limit and pot limit varieties pot odds are used much more regularly, as they are a constant guide when trying to work out whether to call with a drawing hand.

If you start to compare many of the hold’em percentages with the pot odds you are being offered, you may discover some startling facts. Many hands that you thought were rubbish actually perform pretty well for the right price. Look at the pre flop percentages and compare them to the price you are getting - late in tournaments when that short stack shoves in on your big blind you might be folding or calling with far more hands than you should...

14/03/08