Beginners guide to poker percentages

Arm yourself with the basic maths of Hold'em

By Philip Tuck

Many players seem to be very confused about the importance of mathematics in poker when they first start out. The grasp of mathematics a player needs to be successful is actually quite small, and can be learned by anyone pretty quickly. Here at PokerVerdict we thought it was time to give an introduction to the basic percentages involved when playing Hold’em. Enjoy.

Pre Flop Edges.

These are useful when trying to calculate your chances when faced with all in pre flop decisions.

If you hold a higher pair than an opponents pair (eg AA vs QQ) you are approximately 80% favourite.

If you hold a pair and your opponent holds one higher card than your pair (eg JJ vs Q10) you are 70-75% favourite.

If you hold a pair and your opponent holds two cards higher than your pair (eg 55 vs AQ) then you are roughly 50/50 - with the pair a slight favourite.

If you hold two cards higher than your opponents two non paired cards (eg AK vs 910) you are approximately 63% favourite.

If you hold one card higher than your opponents two non paired cards (eg A10 vs JK) You are approximately 55-60% favourite.

Post Flop Edges.

If you hold two suited cards and there are two of that suit on the flop, you have roughly a 35% chance to hit your flush if you get to see both turn and river. The odds of hitting it on the river if you miss the turn are around 20%.

If you hold two suited cards that are higher than those on a board with two of the same suit (eg AsKs on a 10s 7s 2c flop) you are 50/50 against an opponent holding top pair. If your opponent holds a set this drops down sharply to around 25% - clearly showing how important those extra ‘over card’ outs are.

If you hold an ‘open ended’ straight draw, where eight cards will give you a straight (eg 67 on a 5 8 2 board - where any 4 or any 9 would complete the straight) you have roughly a 32% chance to hit if you get to see both turn and river. This decreases to around a 18% edge if you miss on the turn.

If you hold a kicker higher than your opponents on a flop where you both make a pair (eg AK vs AQ on an A x x flop), you are around 85% favourite to win the hand.

Conclusions.

They key figures to remember in hold’em are 50/50, 75/25, and 66/33. Nearly all the common situations involve these figures. All in pre flop with a better ace? 75% of the time it should hold. Off to the races with ace king versus queens? Half the time you should expect to win. Shoving it all in with a low flush draw? Watch those chips come to you around a third of the time.

The best way to get to grips with odds is to constantly observe them in your own game. If you have a tricky hand post it on Pokerhand and analyse the odds with the options at the bottom - you may be startled at what you start finding.

13/03/08