Don't Fall Into The Implied Odds Trap

By Philip Tuck

4 September 2007

You will also be playing a few more hands and have a lot more decisions to make - this will greatly increase your knowledge of the game and your profit over the course of a few sessions

Getting to grips with implied odds is crucial if you want to take your game to a high level...

The basic reasoning behind implied odds is simple - it is the money you think can be made after a drawing hand is completed. The obvious example would be calling too much with a flush draw because you are fairly sure that more money can be made if you complete your hand.

Even though this is a relatively simple concept on the face of it, even players at the high stakes seem to make mistake after mistake in regard to implied odds. This one idea, if mastered and understood properly, will give you the greatest edge in low stakes games.

To see why this is so important in low stakes games let’s have a look at a key hand involving two players in a 25/50c game of no limit holdem.

Player 1 is in the big blind and is a tight aggressive player who plays around one hand every two orbits. The only hands shown down by this player so far have been A-Ko, A-Qs, Q-Q and A-A - all against other players at the table who called them down.

This player has bet on every street after raising pre-flop in these hands. This is a fairly standard player type (tight-aggressive) in low stakes games and one you will frequently come across at these limits. This player has a stack of $78

Player 2 is an aggressive player fully aware of the importance of implied odds who likes to steal from the tight players at the table. This player is sitting on the button and is holding 7s-5s. This player has a stack of $69.

All players fold around to player 2 who puts in a standard pot size raise of $1.75. The Small Blind folds. Player 2 puts in a 3x raise to $5. He calls leaving the pot at $10.25 and active chips behind of $64 (the most Player 1 can win is the $64 Player 2 has left).

The flop is Js-8s-5d.

Player 1 leads out with a pot size raise of $10. Player 2 calls.

The turn is the 5h.

Player 1 fires another pot size bet of $30. Player 2 quickly goes all in with the remainder of his stack ($54). Player 1 now has to call $24 to see a pot of $114 and calls with As-Ad. The river is the 2h and Payer 2 wins with trip 5s.

This hand on the face of it just looks like a bad beat for the Aces – but, in fact, it reveals much more about the advantages of fully understanding implied odds. First, let’s look at the starting hands: 7s-5s is a speculative hand but worth stealing a tight player’s blind with on the button - a good pot size raise is fine here. As-Ad -this is obviously the best starting hand in the game and worth raising and playing from any position.

Although re-raising with Aces is nearly always correct in this spot, Player 1 is actually in an extremely dangerous situation here, even with such a powerful hand. Due to the fact that he has never raised without big hands he has allowed Player 2 to gain intimate knowledge of his cards - a cardinal sin in poker.

Faced with the raise Player 2 actually has an easy call here for two reasons. Firstly, he is well aware of Player 1's range of hands and can play the flop accordingly. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Player 1 has shown a capacity to bet on every street after raising pre-flop and has a stack big enough to do so. Player 2 can be pretty sure that if the big flop comes he will be able to extract a lot of money on subsequent streets.

In the face of these factors Player 2 is actually faced with an easy call. Player 1 has fallen into the implied odds trap - by only playing good hands he has actually left himself wide open to attack. As a tight player his blinds will always be being attacked, and when he signals he has a strong hand with a pre-flop raise, it will be called by good players. These players will then see flops with weaker holdings and simply fold when they miss or get all the chips in when they hit a flop hard.

Let’s check how the flop changes the hand. The flop is a monster for Player 2, a pair and a flush draw, which if you know your opponent has an over pair is a big hand. Let’s compare the equities at this point to see why.

On this flop Player 1 is 52.73% to win while Player 2 is 47.27% making the hand basically a coin flip at this point.

This is exactly the large change in equity (pre flop Player 1's aces are 80% favourite) that Player 2 was looking for on the flop. He now has position on Player 1, a good knowledge of what hand they are holding, and perhaps most important of all knows where he is - any 5 or 7 or any spade will give him a hand that he can get all his chips in with (note: it is a possibility that Player 1 has As-Ks but even with this holding the odds on the flop are still around 50/50).

Compare this to Player 1s spot. They are out of position, looking at what appears to be quite a good flop for their hand (we know it’s very dangerous, of course), and with basically no knowledge of Player 2's hand.

Now the flop action. Player 1 is obviously looking to get money in the pot - a pot bet looks to be ok; although I prefer a bet around $6-7 as it keeps the pot small in case a scare card turns (notice this bet size also will force Player 2 to fold if he has nothing).

Player 2 now has a few options. The first is to go all in. This will probably be called and we can have a $120 coin flip (not great). The second is a raise, perhaps 3x to $30, this would probably be followed by a shove from Player 1 and another $120 coin flip (still not great). The final option is to flat call, this is quite clearly the best option - you have many cards to hit on the turn and will still be getting good implied odds to call another pot size bet on the turn (even if a blank turn comes Player 2 is still 30% to win the hand).

The 5h on the turn and the subsequent action is a great result for Player 2. If Player 1 has A-A K-K or As-Ks then they are now a big dog. It is also now a well disguised hand as Player 1 will probably not be thinking someone would call with bottom pair in that spot.

Now the pot is so large ($60) that Player 2 can afford to shove in. Player 1 has committed himself to the pot so Player 2 can just move his chips in hoping the other guy has Aces or Kings. Notice also that a smaller flop bet from Player 1 (say $6) would have left the pot at $18 on the turn - this would enable Player 1 to possibly get away from the hand after a big bet from Player 2.

The pot is offering Player 1 irresistible odds -nearly 5/1, which is more than enough to call with an overpair (I would probably call with any Jack here). The cards are turned over and Player 1 is drawing to a two-outer, and ends up losing a big pot.

So how could this hand have been played differently? There are actually two key areas of implied odds that would radically change this hand. Firstly, if Player 1 was regularly re-raising with all pairs and any two cards over 10 to button raises then the button would have no information about your possible hand. As a result they have no implied odds on your big hands (for all they know you could now have J-Ks or 2-2 when you raise pre-flop - clearly hands that you will not put a lot of chips in with).

Secondly, is to bet flop and turn with both your weak and strong holdings. By betting smaller amounts (say half to three quarters of the pot)with weaker hands and strong hands alike you stop your opponent knowing how strong you are (you will also pick up a lot of dead money in pots where the players fold doing this).

This creates two problems for your opponent. They are going to have to raise at some point in the hand to build the pot up - you are making them do the work while gaining important information, not just calling a shove when you are already pot committed.

By doing this your opponents do not know whether you have a hand or not - this means they will not be paid off on the vast number of their drawing hands (as you will not pay them off with hands like top or middle pair that you are betting) meaning they are just paying the wrong price. They are not making a good implied odds play (like Player 2 is) because they do not know whether you are have a monster or not. They are simply paying too much money for a draw.

By looking at your play not just for each type of hand but to lay down an image that is hard to take advantage of you will stop yourself falling into the implied odds trap. You will also be playing a few more hands and have a lot more decisions to make - this will greatly increase your knowledge of the game and your profit over the course of a few sessions.

Playing at the low stakes does not have to be a tight grind, get out there and take advantage of the players falling into the implied odds trap – just make sure you don't fall into it yourself.

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