Playing Monster Draws In PLO

By Philip Tuck

25 October 2007

Not only are they making a clear mathematical error, they are doubling their mistake by not realising the complete lack of implied odds

You have 19 outs to defeat top set in a game of pot limit Omaha. What is the correct strategy?

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Sometimes in pot limit Omaha (PLO) you will flop hands where you have the maximum number of outs to the nuts. It is not uncommon to have hands with so many outs that you are favourite over flopped sets (17 or more out draws are pretty standard if you play a lot of Omaha). So how do you play your monster draw? Do you call and try to hit? Get it all in on the flop? Try and trap? What is the best strategy?

Here I want to outline a strategy that I believe will make you more money than any other in PLO - particularly against the standard tight aggressive players encountered at the mid stakes.

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Imagine you button raise 6c-7c-8h-Ah on the button and a tight aggressive player calls from the big blind. This player is a typical middle limit “nut hunter” who rarely bets with anything except the nuts or close to it.

The flop comes Qh-5c-4h. The big blind bets pot into you - you are nearly 100% certain the only hand this player does this with is a set of queens. What’s the best way to play your 19 outs to the nuts draw (9 hearts, 3 threes, 3 eights, 2 sixes, and 2 sevens)? The equity on the hand is a dead heat at this point - you are 50.61% favourite if he holds naked queens.

Most people will re-raise the pot instantly with this hand but I prefer a different play, that will not only save you a lot of money over the course of a year, but will also force serious errors from your opponent.

You should flat call. If the board pairs on the turn; your hand is dead and can be thrown into the muck the minute your opponent bets at you.

If you hit your draw you can raise/bet and try and get it all in/take down the pot there. The great thing about this play is that your hand is actually so big that you are correct to call a pot bet on the turn if it blanks out.

If a blank (like the 2s) comes on the turn you still have a 40% chance to win the hand - well above the 33% (2 to 1) you need to call a pot bet.

The great thing about this play is you save money when your opponent will lose it. If you hit your hand on the turn, nearly all your opponents will check call a pot bet on the turn here (folding top set is rarely easy), trying to pair the board if a scare card comes out. Yet this is a mistake - they will only have a 20% chance to hit - a clear mistake considering the 33% they need to call a pot bet profitably.

Not only are they making a clear mathematical error, they are doubling their mistake by not realising the complete lack of implied odds, as you will not call any bet on the river if the board pairs.

This is a classic example of how to force errors from an opponent in what at the start appears to be a coin flip situation. Think closely about your monster draws - you may be missing out on a chance to show your skill and maximise your profits.